IBM Shared University Research Proposal

( SUR )

University of Florida Department of Marketing 1999 Proposal:

Cognitive and Methodological Issues in Internet Shopping

Special Research Area Focus: e-Business

 

 

 

Dr. Alan D. J. Cooke,   Principal Investigator
Marketing Department

Dr. Joseph Alba
Marketing Department

Dr. Chris Janiszewski
Marketing Department

Dr. Richard Elnicki
Decision & Information Sciences Department

Warrington College of Business Administration
University of Florida

April 17, 1999


Contents:

Participants

    The Marketing Department at the University of Florida is recognized as a world leader in the field of consumer research.  Our fourteen faculty include the current president of the Association for Consumer Research, as well as two of its past presidents.  In addition, our faculty includes the current Vice President of Publications for the American Marketing Association, the former editors of the Journal of Consumer Research and Journal of Marketing Research, a past co-editor of the Journal of Business, and associate editor of Marketing Science.

    A number of our faculty members are involved in electronic commerce research.   A paper entitled "Interactive Home Shopping: Consumer, Retailer, and Manufacturer Incentive to Participate in Electronic Marketplaces," authored by five faculty members, was published in the Journal of Marketing and won the Paul Root award for best 1997 article.  Research for the article was a result of interaction of the Marketing Department faculty and IBM's Retail Group.  The proposed research builds on the analysis presented in that article.

Below is a list of the UF's present Marketing Department faculty.   Their URL sites include summary descriptions of their research interests and past research productivity.

Dr. Joseph Alba          Dr. Jayashree Mahajan
Dr. Joel Cohen          Dr. Murali Mantrala
Dr. Alan Cooke          Dr. Alan Sawyer
Mr. Eric Gordon          Dr. Steven Shugan
Dr. David Jamison          Dr. Barton Weitz
Dr. Chris Janiszewski          Dr. David Wooten
Dr. Richard Lutz          Dr. Jinhong Xie

    Dr. Richard Elnicki, Decision & Information Systems Department, is researching the dial-up demand patterns of students, faculty and staff at the University of Florida.  This work is included in his undergraduate, (ISM 4220) and graduate survey courses on telecommunications.   A primary responsibility in his (half-time) appointment as Associate Director of the IBM computer utility on the UF campus, the NorthEast Regional Data Center, is planning the dial-up capacity for UF students, faculty, and staff.   The application of his " Busiest-Minute Planning Model" for capacity additions, is discussed here.

    The University of Florida is the largest university in the world to establish -- as of this writing -- a universal computer requirement for all students.  Most of the student rooms on campus will have ethernet connections by early 1999, completing an installation program in process to give almost 7,000 students access in their residence halls.  All students will have 15 "free" hours of dial-up server access time each month.  This will give the approximately 35,000 students living off-campus access to the World Wide Web for use as they wish through modem connections (but they are charged for connect time over 15 hours per month).  Present academic services now supported are for class assignments, academic advising, registration, accessing grades and other personal information, and official university correspondence.

   


Project Description

    This proposal spans two related dimensions of research in electronic commerce.   In the first section, we propose collecting experimental data in a experiment laboratory and using the Internet or World Wide Web ("Web" will be used here).  The data is to be collected from typical students and students with advanced experience using the Web.   In the second section, we propose research projects related to electronic shopping behavior and electronic commerce.

Conducting Web Experiments

    Experimental research in consumer behavior is typically conducted by asking undergraduate students to complete a pencil-and-paper survey administered in a classroom or laboratory.   While this allows relatively large numbers of people to participate in any one session, it greatly constrains the sorts of experimental manipulations and controls that can be used.   Recently, researchers have started using personal computers to collect experimental data.   While this allows researchers to present carefully controlled manipulations and use many different, more interesting and realistic media, few people can participate at any given time.  

    The UF's Department of Marketing has extensive experience with such controlled research.   It has used an experiment laboratory in Bryan Hall for a number of years.   It has facilities for the traditional pencil-and-paper tests and surveys administered under controlled physical conditions.  The facility has also collected a number of microcomputers over the years.   The current collection ranges from 10 year old PS/2 machines running the first Windows platform to two machines running Windows 95.

    The World Wide Web (Web) offers researchers the opportunity to merge the best features of pencil and paper tests and computer based approaches.  A group of current, similarly configured LAN-based micros with adequate server capacity will permit us to expand our ability to do controlled research via graphical user interface (GUI) modes with a reasonable number of participants.  The existing capacity effectively eliminates this mode of testing.  

    With current, similarly configured LAN-based micros, our researchers can design experiments that present information and collect responses using multimedia Web authoring tools such as Macromedia Authorware, Macromedia Director, or Alliare Cold Fusion.  In addition, tests and surveys can be completed over the Web using HTML and a forms-capable browser and in the laboratory.  This will enable us to create metrics showing, among other things, systematic differences due to controlled laboratory conditions versus generic Web conditions.  This could substantively add to or knowledge of the extent to which controlled experimental conditions attempting to simulate real-world conditions do, in fact, give results similar to those same tests given in participants' residences.

    We will also be able to test the extent to which prior knowledge of and experience on the Web affects users with typical and advanced students.  A common complaint about computers in general and many software applications is that the new user faces a formidable, often frustrating learning process to be able to use the tools effectively and efficiently.  We have to opportunity to assess the extent to which this effect could constrain e-business.  We have an opportunity to pick participants for our research with known differences in Web knowledge and skills.  We could find that such background differences are systematically associated with major differences in our research outcomes on e-business.  Or, that their background differences dot no matter.  Either result could provide direction for designing electronic commerce applications.

    Such differences may be inextricably bound together.  If the new shopping method requiring network access and Web browsing is too complex for the average consumer, he or she may eschew it for traditional shopping.  At the same time, those experienced with network access and Web browsing could find the alternative preferable to traditional shopping.  This is a possible outcome since many researchers have shown that the decision rules customers use depend on the effort required to collect and process information.

    An implication of the outcome would be that substantial development effort is necessary to make network access and Web browsing much more "user friendly" to the average user.  Conversely, we might find that significant differences in users knowledge and experience in network access and Web browsing have little impact on the usual information collection effort.  Whatever the result, this research could provide valuable insights into the design of the electronic commerce human-machine interface.

     The UF College of Business has, effective June 29, 1998, computer equipment and software literacy minimum requirements.  Our participants will, therefore, be presumed to understand how to use the software packages in the literacy requirement. They are,

All students must have a notebook computer at the start of their junior year.  The required specifications for these notebooks include,
    • "Modem, at least 28.8 kbs" and
    • "Ethernet Network adapter with a '10BaseT' connector."
Many College of Business classrooms will have at each seat an electric outlet and a 10BaseT socket giving access to the college's LANs.   As of this writing, Room 101 in the building named Business Administration has this wiring installed. nbsp;Room 101 is located on the ground level where the letter "A" is shown on the UF map with the building name "Business Admin" at this site.

    We will use for our typical student participants individuals enrolled in UF College of Business' Marketing 3023.  This course is usually taken during the Fall Semester of the Junior year.   Students in the course have the option of participating in experiments for extra credit.

    In contrast, our advanced students, in addition to having the minimum computer hardware and software literacy requirements noted above and Marketing 3023, will be seniors majoring in Decision & Information Sciences (DIS).   They will have completed the following courses in their major on computing languages and those that use software packages.

    • CGS 2531 Introduction to Computer Programming & Software Packages.
    • QMB 3250 Statistics for Business Decision.
    • CGS 3403 Programming in COBOL.
    • CGS 3460 Programming in C (A C++ course may be substituted here).
    • MAN 4504 Operations Management I.
They will be in their senior year and enrolled in the UF College of Business' ISM 4220, Introduction to Business Datacom, with Dr. Elnicki for their instructor.  They will have previously covered in ISM 4220,
    • Client/Network/Server Generics.
    • Graphical User Interface and Character Mode Access to the World Wide Web.
    • World Wide Web Personal Privacy Issues.
    • Electronic Mail on UNIX(PINE), VM/CMS (Rice), Win95/DOS (Eudora), & Browser/Win95/DOS (Netscape E-Mail) computing systems.
    • The Virtual Firm & Telecommuting History, Applications, & Trends.
    • Electronic Data Interchange History, Applications & Trends.
    • Electronic Commerce Applications and Trends.
    • Two, 3, 4, & N-Tier Client/Network/Server Structures, Applications & Trends.
These DIS students may also be concurrently enrolled in up to 3 of 6 additional major course requirements in computing and quantitative methods.  Their participation conditions will be equivalent to the students in Marketing 3023.

2 x 2 Factor Design

    This mix of participants and locations makes possible a 2 x 2 factor design.

FACTORS
 Laboratory   Residence 
 Typical Student      
 Advanced Student      

However, there are complications regarding locations outside the Marketing Department's experiment laboratory on the fifth floor of Bryan Hall.  These complications must be reflected in the choice of student participants to assure the factor design is valid.

  1. In the near future, it is expected most of the 35,000 off-campus UF student body will have dial-up access to the UF campus network (UF Intranet), at 28,800 or 56,000 bps.  As of February 24, 1998, just over 34,000 students had registered for GatorLink accounts, a registration "right."  All undergraduate students with GatorLink accounts have 15 "free" hours of dial-up time to the UF's general user modem pool.  Conversion to complete 57,600 bps dial-up access is in progress.  As of April 17, 1999, 55,706 UF students, faculty, and staff had registered for GatorLink accounts.
  2. Students in dorms with privately-owned micros will be able to participate via a campus network currently running at 10 megabits per second, with 100 megabit connections also being planned.

  3. The UF worked with Cox Cable Company in an experiment where individuals with dial-up phone access will be able to use a channel on their cable for downloads over a shared "pipeline" with a 30 million bit capacity.  A graphic of this analog-up/cable-down system can be seen here.  Cox Cable is currently planning to make this service available in the Gainesville area late Summer 1999.   This site gives an overview of cable modems and gives links to more detailed information.

  4. An ADSL trial experiment was recently completed.  Regular ADSL service may start sometime during the Summer Semester, 1999.   These asymmetric digital subscriber lines will run on existing twisted-pair copper phone lines into offices and residences.   These non-shared lines will give data transmission speeds up to 9 Mbps downstream and 800Kbps upstream according to the ADSL Forum.   Existing ADSL services and tests are show at this ADSL Forum site.

        Differences in transmission speeds between directly connected laboratory-based clients and servers as compared to Web-based clients in the community dialed into those servers over analog phone lines are very large, and known.   So, transmission speed is part of the location difference in the 2 x 2 factor design noted above.  However, we do not yet know the effective transmission speed differences between directly connected clients and those connected via cable and/or ADSL lines.  We will eliminate cable or ADSL line users in our initial research.  When a sufficiently large number of student participants have cable and/or ADSL service, they will be systematically included in future experiment structures.

        The benefits of this approach include:

    • Many participants can be run simultaneously, because they can participate from their residences or from our on-campus computer lab.

    • Carefully controlled experiments can be run, using randomization and counterbalancing procedures that are difficult to achieve using traditional approaches.

    • Different media can be used including text, sound, movies, and VRML representations of stores. This allows a more interesting and externally valid representation of the shopping experience.

    • Issues of electronic commerce can easily be investigated.

    • The effect of extant Web knowledge and experience can be measured.

        We hope to have the machines installed and procedures in place by the beginning of the Fall Semester, 1998.  We intend to begin running experiments by October 1998 and to have the data analyzed by May 1999. Preliminary reports of the results should be available by July 1999.

    Research in Electronic Commerce

        We can simultaneously conduct the above methodological research and explore basic issues in electronic commerce.  Below we propose a few research projects related to electronic commerce.

    1. How do comparison processes influence evaluation and choice in electronic shopping?  In presenting information about a small set of brands, one could choose to place them all on a single page where they can be directly compared, or one can place them on separate pages, forcing the consumer to compare alternatives to information stored in memory.  Furthermore, research suggests that allowing for direct comparisons can emphasize particular attributes relative to other attributes.  These effects can influence a person's preference for one product over another, or the price that the consumer is willing to pay for the brand.

    2. How is information search affected by the organization of a multi-product website?  Information about different products is often organized into a hierarchical tree where customers first choose whether they want a product with Attribute A, then whether they want a product with Attribute B, and so forth until a sufficiently small number of brands remains.  Will customers search more deeply if the organization mirrors how important each of the attributes are to them?  Will they be more satisfied with the shopping service?

    3. Frequently, online consumers are confronted with information about one or more products that is not available for all products under consideration.  How do consumers respond to this missing information?  Do they assume that the product possesses a relatively low value, or do they attempt to infer the value of the missing information based on the other products that they have seen?  If the latter is the case, marketers may be able to make some products appear more attractive by expanding or limiting the breadth of the set or products presented.

    4. What factors affect customers' satisfaction with an intelligent shopping agent?  Intelligent agents such as Firefly track and predict subscribers' preferences over time.  This enables these applications to recommend potentially desirable products or brands to the customer. Under what conditions will the customer find such recommendations valuable?  One expects satisfaction to depend on the number and quality of the products recommended.  A single very attractive recommendation will be seen as superior to several moderately attractive recommendations.  Does satisfaction also depend on the time that is required to make the prediction?

        These projects will be run in a staggered fashion.  Data collection will begin in October 1998 for the first project and run through July 1998 for the last project.   Data analysis will begin in January 1999 for the first project and run through October 1999 for the last project.   Research results will be available by August 1999 for the first project and by March 2000 for the last project.


    Project Web Site

        The URL for this site is,

    UF Marketing Department - IBM SUR Grant Research

    We will periodically post progress reports to this site.


    Value to Marketing and the College of Business

        This research provides an opportunity to extend the already recognized expertise of the UF marketing department into the area of electronic commerce.   The marketing community is very interested in developing on-line counterparts to traditional channels.  However, it is not known whether theories of consumer behavior that are valid in traditional shopping environments will apply equally well to on-line shopping sites.  This research will help marketers understand the fundamental similarities and differences between traditional and on-line consumer behavior.

        This research will also benefit the research community by providing a test of whether behavioral experiments can be run reliably over the web.  Academic departments expend considerable manpower to run experimental subjects.   Web experiments, if reliable, could allow researchers to collect data with much less effort.

        The research will also provide evidence on the extent to which extant computing and Web knowledge of individual users contributes to the level of effectiveness and efficiency in using the communication media.  Evidence that such extant knowledge does or does not affect users would be valuable information to builders of applications for e-Business and all other applications on the Web.


    Value to IBM

        IBM can benefit from this research program in the following ways:

    • If Web experiments prove feasible, many academic departments will want to buy powerful servers, such as those included in this proposal, to run their experiments.

    • IBM will learn information about the behavior of on-line consumers that may be used directly in the construction of IBM websites.

    • IBM could learn whether the Web-based products and software it produces require specific design criteria for typical versus advanced individual Web users.

    Plans to Publish

        We intend to publish the most theoretically interesting and managerially relevant results of this research in leading marketing and consumer behavior journals.  These include:

    We will also publish working papers related to this project on this website.

    Proposal Budget

        We are requesting equipment to (1) provide a uniform environment for experimentation in the Marketing Department's experimental laboratory in Bryan Hall and (2) permit the two faculty that will be working directly with participating students to demonstrate procedures in their offices on the same equipment.  The following spreadsheet image includes the detailed IBM descriptions, part numbers, and prices provided by UF's IBM representative.

    NOTE: This will be updated on receipt of cost information from Ms. Bonnie Clark, IBM.

    A spreadsheet image

    • Lines 11 and 12 in the above spreadsheet image include the 14 Pentium II-based micros that will provide the uniform environment for the proposed experiments in the Marketing Department experiment laboratory.  They will replace a collection of micros up to 10 years old, in which no more than 3 are similar.

    • Lines 17, 18, 20, and 22 in the above spreadsheet image detail the servers requested and the communication equipment needed for them.

    • Lines 14 and 15 include the Pentium-II based micros that will be used in the offices of the two faculty that will be directly interacting with participating students.


    This document was prepared by Alan Cooke  &   Dick Elnicki.

    © 1999 University of Florida, all rights reserved.

    It was last updated on 17 April, 1999.